Photo/Morry Gash

Milwaukee Bucks first round draft pick Brandon Jennings, selected 10th overall, speaks during a news conference, Friday, June 26, 2009, in Milwaukee.

I came across a site, statsheet.com, that combines all recruiting rankings for a given year. I think it shows some patterns regarding when some of the past HS kids busted and which ones were legit. It appears quite evident that when a player or two are the consensus top two, they rarely bust. The problem has been that sometimes, teams drafted these players lower than they should have been, while picking guys like Kwame Brown ahead of several players from his own class.

I'll start with 2002, the recruiting class with Carmelo and Amare.

1. Amare Stoudemire - he was rated 1 by 4 of the 5 major ratings
2. Carmelo - he was 2 in 4/5, and the 1 in the other.

These two have had good-really good careers. Amare was drafted too low, Carmelo should have been drafted 2 behind Lebron.

2003 - At this point it was extended to 7 ratings systems.

1. Lebron - Consensus, all 7 rated him #1
2. Luol Deng - All 7 had him 2.

After these two, the ratings were all over the place. Chris Paul was 6th, which shows that college was likely good for him to grow as a better PG.

2004

1. Dwight Howard - Consensus 1
2. Livingston - Consensus 2

This class had Al Jefferson 3, Josh Smith 4, so they were drafted about where they should have been. Sebastian Telfair was rated 6th, and he was that high mostly due to that fact that guys behind him had 1 or 2 bad ratings out of the 7 that lowered them. You could argue that according to the ratings he was the 10th best prospect at best. What could have been if he went to college for two years like Chris Paul.

2005 - Horrible year, this was a bad class, and a reason college basketball went downhill. The crappiness of this class may be why the NBA imposed the rule in a couple of years. There was no consensus 1 or 2.

1. Gerald Green
2. Josh McRoberts
3. Monta Ellis

Crappy year, Hansborough was 5, Martell Webster was 4. Each players rankings were all over the place. I think it shows in their NBA production. Ellis is for real, but there was a ton of risk.

2006

1. Oden - Consensus 1
2. Durant - Consensus 2

Seems correct, Oden's health has obviously been an issue, but I think they were still picked in the correct order based on talent/ability

2007

1. Mayo - He was 1 in 3/7
2. Love - 1 in 3/7
3. Gordon - he was 2-4 in all 7
4. Beasley - 1 in 1/7, also rated 8th in one of them
5. Rose - Highest rating was 3. Could have a lot to do with playing on an inner city team amd not doing the national tourney scene.

I think this shows that this is a good class, Nobody was consensus, but all were rated within a reasonable range. I think the 8 for Beasley is a good indicator of how good he isn't.

Note: Blake Griffin was 16th in this class, that would worry me. I think guards can improve in college, but how can big men get better against nobody's. Deandre Jordan and Randolph were rated ahead of him in this class. If they had stayed for their sophmore year would Blake have been player of the year?

2008

1. Jennings - 1 in 6/7
2. Holiday - 3 or 4 in 6/7, 2 in 1
3. Evans
5. Derozan

It looks like as close to a consensus as possible with Jennings, after that it looks like a mixed bag.

2001 The year that proves my theory

1. Eddy Curry
2. Torbert
3. Wagner
4. Chandler
6. Kwame Brown

Kwame had no business being #1. Curry has not been great, but he hasn't been the bust that Kwame has. Diop was rated #8, and that explains his bust in the NBA.

I think this speaks well to how much potential Jennings has. He is truly the best prospect from his class, and the best prospects usually do well.

So, when picking HS guys on potential, there is a tad more science to it than the GMS will admit. Due to bombs like Kwame, GMs avoided Amare, but Kwame had no businees being picked that high. He was picked above 5 guys from his own class, let alone the college and foreign guys. Guys like Oden, Durant, Lebron, Carmelo, Amare, Howard, and even Deng, when guys are obviously among the top two in the class, they do not appear to be busts. I always hear how it is an inexact science, well YEAH, if you don't follow the history of the draft and learn from it.

Busts that went staight to the NBA and their HS ranking

Jonathen Bender rated 8th in his class

Leon Smith rated 12, no wonder I never heard of him

Darius Miles rated 3rd, and not a strong 3rd.

Deshawn Stevenson 7th

Diop 8th

Kwame 6th, a couple ratings had him 12th and 14th, how did he go #1?

Kendrick Perkins 5th

Edi 4th

Robert Swift 8th

Telfair 6th

Successful Guys that went straight to the NBA

Lebron 1

Howard 1

Amare 1

Carmelo 2, I count his stay at Syracuse as straight to the NBA. He was on national tv every game and they won the title. Displaying how dominant the top guys are when forced to play in college.

Harrington 1

Lewis 2

NBA GMs would make a pick one year, and without reason, totally change their approach the next. Kwame busts at 1, when he shouldn't have been drafted in the first 20 picks. The next year Amare was a consensus 1 from his HS class, and goes 9. I think this all shows that the real difference makers in the NBA come from the very top of their HS class. I think Roy and Wade are the only stars in the league that were not at the top of their HS class

Of the All-NBA teams, 3 teams of 5

9 were studs of their HS class

4 were foreign

2 were guys that developed after HS(Wade, Roy)

Jennings will be a star and resurrect the Bucks and give me something to watch in the winter since College Basketball has become a joke.

OR, he will be too skinny, too street, cannot shoot, and be have a bad attitude.

Either way, because of him I will watch the Bucks next year.

The link to the stats is below; here is the link to my blog, Wisconsin Sports Fanatic.