The Brewers Make Their Pitch

Dan O'Donnell 620 WTMJ & SportsBubbler.com Posted: Nov. 18, 2009

One of the worst-kept secrets in Major League Baseball (other than steroids) is that the Milwaukee Brewers need starting pitching...desperately. With a 5.37 ERA that ranked last in the National League in 2009, the rotation is in dire need of an upgrade or Milwaukee risks another generation of missed postseasons and second-guessing.

The first priority will be replacing Braden Looper, whose $6.5 million option was declined last week. His 5.22 ERA and team-record 39 home runs surrendered won't be missed, but his 194.2 innings pitched and team-high 14 wins surely will.

But how will the Brewers replace him? With a potential 20-game winner or a serviceable starter who will come at a much more affordable price? Milwaukee stands at the unenviable crossroads of high-priced quality and low-cost quantity, and the road they travel could shape the direction of the franchise for years to come.

That road will probably lead them to one (or maybe two) of these five pitchers:

John Lackey, LAA: In a down year for starters, he clearly has the highest upside. A 31 year-old fireballer who has spent his entire career in Los Angeles, Lackey would command a hefty price to move to Milwaukee--reportedly asking for somewhere in the neighborhood of the $82 million the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett last offseason.

The Brewers would likely get what they pay for, though, since Lackey is one of just six pitchers who have won at least 11 games per year for the past six seasons. The others include CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Derek Lowe.

He keeps pretty prestigious company, but Lackey does have a recent history of injuries. He missed his first few starts of 2008 and 2009, but did pitch in 33 games each for the previous five seasons. $70-$80 million is a steep investment, so Milwaukee must make sure that Lackey is healthy enough to rest its playoff hopes on.

Moreover, since he is a Type A free agent, the Brewers will forfeit a draft pick and in so doing mortgage their future to an even greater degree on a solid ace who may be overvalued in a depressed free agent market.

Randy Wolf, LAD: Another Type A free agent, The Wolfman is two years older than Lackey and doesn't have his pedigree, but doesn't have his price tag, either. The Dodgers signed him to a 1-year, $5 million deal, and while his 11-7 record and 3.23 ERA will guarantee him a raise, it likely won't be that substantial.

Dodger Stadium is a cavern, so there is legitimate concern that Wolf's 2009 numbers were a tad inflated, and he is only two years removed from major shoulder surgery.

Still, his 23 quality starts were the most by a lefty in the National League, and quality starts are just what the Brewers need, so if Lackey is deemed too expensive, Wolf might be a viable alternative.

Jon Garland, LAD: Wolf's Dodgers teammate is a Type B free agent and would likely command a slightly lower price than either of the top two pitchers on the market. Garland has been the model of consistency over the past decade--making at least 32 starts in each of the last nine seasons and winning at least 10 games in each of the last eight.

In the last half of 2009, however, Garland struggled--posting a 2-3 record (albeit with a 2.70 ERA) and getting left off the Dodgers' postseason roster before L.A. declined his $10 million option. This has led a number of possible free agent suitors to wonder just how valuable the 30 year-old truly is.

Doug Davis, ARI: In his first stint with the Brewers, Davis went exactly .500 in each of his three seasons and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of them. His career ERA is a respectable 4.31, but he is 34 years old and there are significant questions about whether his best years are behind him.

Davis is a soft-throwing lefty whose fastball tops out in the mid-80s, but he has strong command and is a solid third starter in any rotation. Milwaukee made a waiver claim for him in August, so there is a good deal of interest in his services. But will he be worth anywhere near the 3-year, $22 million deal the Diamondbacks gave him in 2006?

Jarrod Washburn, DET: The Wisconsin native has repeatedly expressed interest in pitching for the hometown team, but after he struggled mightily after a deadline trade to Detroit last season (1-3, 7.33 ERA) will the feeling be mutual?

Washburn was reportedly pitching on a bum knee in the second half, which should give the Brewers some pause, but before the trade he was 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA and pitched a one-hitter in early July. Would a return home bring a return to glory as well?

If it doesn't, then Milwaukee will be out several million dollars and, in a difficult economy, have trouble competing with free spenders in future free agent markets.

No matter who on this list the Brewers sign (if anyone), it is clear that this will be one of the most important offseasons in franchise history.

To read more from Dan, check out his blog on 620WTMJ.com

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The Brewers Make Their Pitch