I think that when people state that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, they don’t seriously understand just how good he is, and just how far ahead he is, compared to his competition.

Not only is Santana the best pitcher in baseball, he is just entering his 30-year-old season -- placing him in a category of young aces that we can reasonably expect to watch for a good portion of the next decade; he is the only active pitcher at age 30 or younger to boast multiple seasons on the list of most-valuable seasons from 1954-present.

One way to judge pitchers is to utilize ERA+, which measures individual ERA against league ERA, presenting the result on a scale of 100+ (100 = average, +100 = above average). Looking at the top career ERA+ of active pitchers 30 or younger, we can see that Santana tops the list (although it is close, with Brandon Webb).

Top Career ERA+ (active, 30 or younger)

1. Johan Santana (144 ERA+)

2. Brandon Webb (142 ERA+)

3. Carlos Zambrano (127 ERA+)

4. Mark Buehrle (123 ERA+)

5. Danny Haren (123 ERA+)

6. C.C. Sabathia (121 ERA+)

7. Jake Peavy (119 ERA+)

8. Josh Beckett (117 ERA+)

9. Ben Sheets (116 ERA+)

10. John Lackey (115 ERA+)

Another way to measure pitchers is individual VORP, or Value Over Replacement Pitcher, which counts the number of runs above or below average for an individual player. For pitchers, VORP is based around the number of runs prevented against the league average, gauged over time (i.e., IP).

Here we can see that Santana is clearly separated from his peers. Whereas he posted one VORP above 80, and three over 70, only one of his active-list competitors can boast even one VORP above 70 (although a disclaimer should note that the Sabathia trade last year split-up a good season that probably would have been around 70-75 on the VORP scale).

Best seasons by pitchers under age 30, 1999-2008

1. Pedro Martinez, 2000 (116.7)

2. Pedro Martinez, 1999 (102.3)

3. Johan Santana, 2004 (89.5)

4. Derek Lowe, 2002 (80.8)

5. Johan Santana, 2006 (79.6)

6. Jake Peavy, 2007 (77.0)

7. Cliff Lee, 2008 (76.5)

8. Barry Zito, 2002 (75.3)

9. Tim Hudson, 2003 (75.2)

10. Kevin Millwood, 1999 (74.7)

11. Johan Santana, 2008 (73.6)

12. Johan Santana, 2005 (73.0)

13. Roy Oswalt, 2006 (72.4)

14. Tim Hudson, 2002 (72.3)

15. Tim Lincecum, 2008 (72.3)

16. Joe Mays, 2001 (71.5)

17. Roy Halladay, 2003 (71.2)

18. [deleted, Roy Halladay, 2008]

19. Freddy Garcia, 2001 (70.4)

20. Brandon Webb, 2006 (68.9)

21. Roy Halladay, 2006 (68.0)

22. Mark Prior, 2003 (66.9)

23. Roy Halladay, 2002 (66.4)

24. Brandon Webb, 2007 (66.1)

25. Brad Radke, 1999 (65.7)

26. Dontrelle Willis, 2005 (65.2)

27. C.C. Sabathia, 2007 (65.2)

28. Roy Oswalt, 2005 (65.1)

29. Ben Sheets, 2004 (65.0)

30. Bronson Arroyo, 2006 (64.9)

31. Fausto Carmona, 2007 (64.0)

32. Carlos Zambrano, 2004 (62.8)

33. Brad Penny, 2007 (61.7)

34. Mark Buehrle, 2002 (61.5)

35. Mark Mulder, 2002 (61.4)

36. Jarred Washburn, 2002 (60.9)

37. John Lackey, 2007 (60.7)

38. Carl Pavano, 2004 (60.6)

39. Mike Hampton, 2000 (60.4)

Best Pitchers with Most Valuable Seasons – Under Age 30:

Pedro Martinez (2): 116.7, 102.3

Johan Santana (4): 89.5, 79.6, 73.6, 73.0

Tim Hudson (2): 75.2, 72.3

Roy Oswalt (2): 72.4, 65.1

Roy Halladay (4): 71.2, 70.6, 68.0, 66.4

Brandon Webb (2): 68.9, 66.1

To give you an idea about how good a VORP above 70 or 80 is, note that since 1954 there have been 315 VORP seasons above 60; however, when you raise the VORP to 75, there have only been 94 VORP seasons at or above 75 since 1954. This means that of the VORP seasons at or above 60 (since 1954), a full 70% of those seasons fell between 60 and 75. So, if VORP postings above 60 indicate good, ace-quality value, reaching that 75 mark (or higher) indicates truly elite pitching.

85 or above? Only 32 seasons since 1954 reached that level.

Compare Webb with Santana more closely then; while their career ERA+ are similar (Santana in approx. 1600 IP, Webb in approx. 1300 IP), we can see that their individual best seasons are not close. Webb’s two best seasons are very valuable marks of 66.1 and 68.9; Santana boasts four VORP seasons above those marks.

The same goes for Peavy, Sabathia, Sheets, Zambrano, Buehrle, Beckett, Lackey, and Haren.

Santana’s final claim to elite status, over and above his peers, is his standing on that all-time, elite season list:

1. Pedro Martinez, 2000 (116.7)         217 IP,            291 ERA+,      0.74 WHIP, 284 K/32 BB

2. Roger Clemens, 1997 (116.3)         264 IP,            221 ERA+,      1.03 WHIP, 292 K/68 BB

3. Pedro Martinez, 1999 (102.3)         213.3 IP,         243 ERA+,   0.92 WHIP, 313 K/37 BB

4. Sandy Koufax, 1966 (99.8)            323 IP,             190 ERA+,     0.99 WHIP,  317 K/77 BB

5. Randy Johnson, 1999 (99.3)           271.7 IP,          186 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 364 K/70 BB

6. Dwight Gooden, 1985 (99.3)         276.7 IP,            228 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP, 268 K/69 BB

7. Jim Palmer, 1975 (98.7)                  323 IP,            169 ERA+,     1.03 WHIP, 193 K/80 BB

8. Pat Hentgen, 1996 (98.2)                265.7 IP,          155 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 177 K/94 BB

9. Steve Carlton, 1972 (97.3)              346.3 IP,          182 ERA+,  0.99 WHIP, 310 K/87 BB

10. Ron Guidry, 1978 (94.6)              273.7 IP,           208 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 248 K/72 BB

11. Greg Maddux, 1995 (94.2)           209.7 IP,           262 ERA+, 0.81 WHIP, 181 K/23 BB

12. Roger Clemens, 1987 (92.8)         281.7 IP,           154 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP, 256 K/83 BB

13. Dean Chance, 1964 (92.8)            278.3 IP,            198 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 207 K/86 BB

14. Randy Johnson, 2001 (90.8)         249.7 IP,          188 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 372 K/71 BB

15. Johan Santana, 2004 (89.5)           228 IP,            183 ERA+,     0.92 WHIP, 265 K/54 BB

16. Tom Seaver, 1971 (88.9)               286.3 IP,        193 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 289 K/61 BB

17. Jim Palmer, 1976 (88.7)                315 IP,            130 ERA+,     1.08 WHIP, 159 K/84 BB

18. Greg Maddux, 1997 (88.5)           232.7 IP,          189 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 177 K/20 BB

19. Kevin Brown, 1996 (88.4)            233 IP,            216 ERA+,     0.94 WHIP, 159 K/33 BB

20. Bob Gibson, 1969 (88.3)              314 IP,            164 ERA+,     1.10 WHIP, 269 K/95 BB

21. Sandy Koufax, 1963 (88.1)          311 IP,             159 ERA+,     0.88 WHIP, 306 K/58 BB

22. Tom Seaver, 1973 (87.7)               290 IP,           175 ERA+,     0.98 WHIP, 251 K/64 BB

23. Pedro Martinez, 1997 (87.6)         241.3 IP,         219 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 305 K/67 BB

24. Randy Johnson, 1995 (87.5)         214.3 IP,         192 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP, 294 K/65 BB

25. Vida Blue, 1971 (87.4)                 312 IP,            185 ERA+,     0.95 WHIP, 301 K/88 BB

26. Sandy Koufax, 1965 (87.4)          335.7 IP,          160 ERA+, 0.86 WHIP, 382 K/71 BB

27. Jim Palmer, 1973 (86.3)                293.3 IP,         156 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 158 K/113 BB

28. Roger Clemens, 1998 (86.3)         234.7 IP,          174 ERA+,  1.10 WHIP, 271 K/88 BB

29. Early Wynn, 1956 (85.7)              277.7 IP,          154 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 158 K/91 BB

30. Bob Gibson, 1968 (85.4)              304.7 IP,         258 ERA+, 0.85 WHIP, 268 K/62 BB

31. Jimmy Key, 1987 (85.4)               261 IP,           164 ERA+,     1.06 WHIP, 161 K/66 BB

32. Randy Johnson, 2000 (85.0)         248.7 IP,        181 ERA+, 1.12 WHIP, 347 K/76 BB

Resources:

Most Valuable Pitching Seasons, 1954-2007. The Junkball Blues.

Most Valuable Pitching Seasons by pitchers under 30, 1999-2008. The Junkball Blues.

Baseball Prospectus, VORP for Pitchers. 2008 MLB.

Baseball Reference, Active Leaders for Adjusted Career ERA+.