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Zuch-etology: NCAA Tournament Forecast (Through games of 3/9)
Here is my second to last NCAA Forecast before Selection, with My S Curve (Ranking of Teams in the Field 1-65) added to my look at things.
It has comments on the following:
1. The Last Few Teams In and Out
2. St. Mary's and Creighton likely blowing their opportunity for an at-large bid with poor performances in their conference tournaments.
3. The teams I tepidly support (Arizona and New Mexico) and do not support (Penn State) on the bubble, and the reasons why for that.
4. The Big East's quest for an unprecedented three number one seeds. The last few in my bracket are UNLV, Florida, Providence, Miami-Florida.
The last few teams out my bracket are South Carolina, Penn State, San Diego State, Temple, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Northwestern, St. Mary’s, Creighton and Davidson.
Creighton and St. Mary’s in particular blew chances at receiving an at-large bid by getting blown out in their conference tournaments. Losing a close game in these situations can be acceptable, but getting blown states that you do not belong in tournament (look at Illinois State lying an egg to Drake in last year’s Missouri Valley finals as an example).
I have no faith with the last few teams in my field and out. My only strong are that Arizona (with wins over Kansas, UCLA, Washington and Gonzaga) and New Mexico (tremendous performance in Mountain West in sharing the conference crown in the #6 overall league) belong and that Penn State has been incredibly fortunate in assembling their 10-8 Big Ten record (win over Michigan State with Raymar Morgan out, win over Purdue with Robbie Hummel out, not to mention the luck and ugliness in the sweep over Illinois).
Finally, the Big East will need things to break right in New York (like a close Louisville win over UConn in BET finals) for them to get the three number one seeds I am currently projecting, but Louisville currently deserved a number one seed by winning the Big East outright (at a phenomenal 16-2 record).
Who's In? Who's Out? Who's On or Off the Bubble?
Tags: Marquette Golden Eagles Mens Basketball The World According to Zuch UWGB Phoenix Men's Basketball UWM Panthers Mens Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Mens Basketball
